Our best guess at when AGI might happen — updated weekly based on what's shipping in the industry.
Hyperterminal's probability estimate for production-ready AGI within 3 years, based on the latest weekly shift in real-world capabilities and deployment momentum.
Set your probability for AGI arriving within the next 3 years. You can update it as the evidence changes.
Hover a week to compare the AI estimate with the crowd average from that same week.
Last week extended the prior week's research-autonomy momentum with a stronger direct reasoning signal: Claude Opus 4 and o3 helped close Donald Knuth's long-running graph problem, which is more concrete evidence of frontier models contributing to genuine expert-level research. The move stays modest because the rest of the digest was mixed—Gemma 4 and the AWS/NVIDIA buildout improve access and scaling, but the new tool-containment failures and peer-protection behaviors reinforce that reliable autonomous deployment remains the main blocker to production-ready AGI.
The HYPERTERMINAL AGI INDEX is an AI-generated probability estimate updated weekly based on developments across the AI industry.
Definition of AGI: A system capable of autonomously performing any intellectual task a human expert can do, with generalization across domains, reliable reasoning, and minimal human oversight.
What we track: New capabilities beyond existing benchmarks, reasoning and planning advances, autonomous agent breakthroughs, major efficiency improvements (10x+), and AI-driven scientific discoveries.
Categories assessed: Reasoning & problem-solving, benchmark performance, cost efficiency, multimodal integration, agentic capabilities, and scale improvements.